A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
