Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Fuels Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid

Just eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a symptom or a cause for the side's more general malaise.

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six games, find themselves just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have piled up.

Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have put together 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. Their key man, surely, will not continue to blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
• The winger might become the performer he was during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.